Monthly Debate▲ +8.42%

July 2026 review — +8.42% hit, alpha +9.98%p

MC AI LabsJuly 1, 2026· #XLV #SOXX #ITA #review

TL;DR

Our June allocation (Healthcare 36% · Semiconductors 35% · Defense 29%) returned +8.42% over 6/2 to 7/1, beating SPY (-1.55%) by +9.98 percentage points — our best alpha month in five. All three sleeves rose: SOXX +12.03%, XLV +7.32%, ITA +5.44%.

What worked

The defensive pivot that put Healthcare at #1 in June proved well-timed: XLV compounded steadily while semiconductors kept running. Defense quietly added +5.44%. The SOXX -3pp trim we made in June cost almost nothing (about -0.14pp) while adding protection into a hawkish Fed meeting.

What we are watching (the honest caveat)

The alpha is partly relative: the S&P actually fell this month, so our outperformance reflects narrow market breadth as much as conviction. Semiconductors carrying the book while the broad index drops is a fragility signal, not only a win. That is why the August book trims SOXX further, and why building a SOX P/E percentile — three months overdue — is now a hard blocker before the next monthly call.


Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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