TL;DR
Week 23 macro data confirms the defensive rotation thesis. UMich consumer sentiment printed 49.8 (vs 53.4 prior), the lowest since 2022. HY credit spread compressed to 2.74%, suggesting credit markets disagree with equity fear. Core PCE +3.29% YoY is stickier than Fed forecasts.
Indicator Dashboard (W23)
| Indicator | Reading | Change |
|---|---|---|
| UMich Consumer Sentiment | 49.8 | ▼ -6.6% |
| HY Credit Spread | 2.74% | ▼ -12bp |
| Core PCE YoY | 3.29% | ▲ +0.05pp |
| Fed Funds Rate | 4.50% | unchanged |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.21% | ▲ +5bp |
Not investment advice.